This week, John Swinney launched yet another desperate push to try to break up the UK, this time fronted by a glossy poster declaring:
“Scotland is a nation. We affirm that every nation has the right to choose its own future. We choose a future where Scotland decides its own government…This is our plea, our right, and our opportunity: To place who live here at the heart of our national opportunity: democracy.”
This Right to Decide word salad also promises lower bills, stronger communities, and Scotland’s “rightful place in Europe.” A typical emotional plea, but it is also hollow. This campaign feels less like a blueprint for a viable future and more like a desperate bid to rally the base and cling to a dream that’s already fading.
As Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay put it in his first major speech, the “dream of Scottish independence is dead.” The Tories have even vowed to boycott Holyrood debates on the topic, focusing instead on devolved issues like the NHS and education.
The movement’s waning momentum is evident in sparsely attended rallies; for instance, a 10th anniversary event for the 2014 referendum drew humiliatingly small crowds, with organizers admitting the Yes cause has lost steam. Even larger gatherings, like the May 2025 march in Glasgow with around 5,000 participants, pale in comparison to the massive turnouts of the past.
Polling shows that constitutional issues ranks a barely-there 17th on Scots’ concerns and, even nationalist-friendly Sir John Curtice declares Swinney’s referendum hopes “dead in the water.”
The harsh truth: the case for independence is a deflated balloon: It’s a political, economic, and legally dead end.
The Economics Don’t Work
The 2024–25 GERS Report spells it out. Pooling and sharing resources across the UK gives Scots £2,669 more per head in public spending than the UK average. Scotland makes up 8% of the UK’s population but receives 9.1% of UK public spending. That translates into more money for schools, hospitals, and public services. Outside the Union, those fiscal transfers vanish. The reality would be less funding, deeper cuts, and decades of austerity. Independence would not be liberation — it would be ruin.The 2014 referendum should have settled the matter:
- No: 2,001,926 (55.3%)
- Yes: 1,617,989 (44.7%)
- Turnout: 84.6% — the highest in UK history.
- 2015 Westminster – 1,454,436 (36% of electorate)
- 2016 Holyrood – 1,006,743 (25%)
- 2017 Westminster – 977,569 (24.9%)
- 2019 Westminster – 1,242,380 (30.6%)
- 2021 Holyrood – 1,192,789 (27.9%)
No Mandate, No Future
Legally, too, the SNP’s argument collapses. Under UK Constitutional Law, independence is a reserved matter. No devolved election — no matter how many seats they win — can deliver a mandate for separation. Their victories entitle them to run a devolved administration, not to dismantle the United Kingdom.The reality that nationalists simply won’t face is that no other country allows a minority of separatists in one of its regions to think they have the unlimited right to break up the entire country.
Yet the SNP still behave like medieval clan leaders, clinging to a romanticised vision of the past and pushing their obsession with separation while neglecting schools, hospitals, and basic services. Their “independence” project is based on fantasy economics, prejudice against England, and a misplaced sense of entitlement.
The facts are undeniable: independence has no economic case, no majority support, and no constitutional validity. It is finished.
John Swinney’s latest poster campaign is the desperate wail of a dead movement. It talks of rights, democracy, and a bright new chapter - but it cannot disguise reality. Swinney and his increasingly tired and desperate band of separatist have no path forward: independence is dead.
Written by Stephen Bailey. Stephen is a commentator on UK constitutional issues.