Six ways Nationalists manipulate polls

Another new poll! It seems that almost every week there's a new poll on Scottish 'independence'. But, what's the deal? Why are there so many, and do they really mean we're on the inevitable road to 'independence'? Short answer -- Nope. Here's how Nationalists manipulate polls, and why.

#1 Choose a pollster that gives them the result they want

James Kelly (@JamesKelly) of Pop Goes Scot admits that he uses Panelbase polls to get a better result for Yes.

'Panelbase have produced really good results for Yes recently, better than some other firms. Or, I could go with another firm, which might be not be quite so good for Yes, and get a quick result.'

James was all over Twitter trying to claim that the words he said didn't actually come out of his own mouth.

So James chose another pollster and - surprise, surprise - didn't get the result he wanted: 45% Yes, 43% No and 12% Don't Knows (who break for No). He tried to spin it, but it was an epic fail.

You might think that, when choosing a pollster, accuracy would be more important than trying to get the result you want. Because if you don't do that, you'll not only fool people, you'll make a FOOL of yourself when your predictions fail. Remember this?

Unless your goal is to fool people. In that case, you choose a pollster that gives you the result you want, and get them to ask leading questions. Questions that won't be asked in a referendum. Questions about a referendum that isn't even going to happen.

#2 Ask questions that won't be asked

Why didn't James use my poll question?

When faced with years of waiting for a second referendum that will never come, while Scottish services continue to go down the toilet, would you rather leave the country now or in six months?

Joking (not really) aside, Nationalist pollsters simply don't want to ask questions about the issues people actually care about: health, education, jobs, economy. And they certainly don't want to ask questions about a hard border, abandoning the pound and isolation in Europe.

But, we have this information, because non-Nationalist pollsters do ask those questions.

The latest survey of 1,008 Scots, conducted between September 10 and 12, found that if the pound is replaced with a new Scottish currency, then 42% would be less likely to vote for independence, with 16% more likely, while there would be no difference for 35%.

If a hard border is introduced between Scotland and England, then 43% less likely to vote for independence, with 18% more likely, while there would be no difference for 31%.

The prospect of an independent Scotland being outside both the UK and the EU for several years would see 42% of Scots become less likely to back independence, while 15% would be more likely and it would make no difference for third (33%).

Respondents were then asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’

After considering the issues put, 56% said they would vote to remain in the UK and 44% would vote to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.

Awkward! Sometimes the terrible truth is revealed inside the detail of Nationalist polls. Here's what Angus Robertson doesn't want you to see:

For example, even among those who totally, completely support Separation (8 to 10), only 5% support moving to a new Scottish currency in the short term. Few want to abandon the stability of the pound.

While Scottish 'independence' is something that many people have a strong feeling for, the reality of Separation is a different matter altogether. And after Brexit, the last thing people want is more constitutional wrangling.

A total of 72% said they wanted 's Holyrood election debate to focus on the economy and public services "ahead of other issues such as Scottish independence".

Among SNP voters in the 2019 general election, 35% said a second independence referendum is not a priority while 18% ranked constitutional affairs and independence as a top priority for Scotland.

We are being held hostage by 18% of SNP voters. Stop pandering to them and get on with the day job.

#3 Ask leading questions

Check these actual questions, taken from a Panelbase poll last year:

Would the following Scenarios make you more or less likely to vote for Scottish independence?

If the Scottish Government committed to paying every citizen a universal basic income of £6000 (replacing benefits but OAPs would still get the current pension) a year as part of its economic plans?

The UK pension of £134.25 is the lowest in the developed world (OECD Nations) as a percentage of what people earn. If the Scottish Government committed to raising the pension in an independent Scotland to around £330 a week matching the average of OECD/EU countries and end pensioner poverty

Sure, if you promise me a free puppy (already toilet trained) then I'll sign up too. It's amazing to think that this brazen manipulation actually works, but promising unicorns and rainbows is always at the core of Scottish Nationalism.

#4 Always show the results excluding Don't Knows

So apparently we've had 21 polls that say independence is coming. Let's have a look at them in more detail.

It's a fact that Don't Knows are always excluded from headline results because, when the actual vote comes around they end up voting for the status quo - which means they'll vote for NO.

This means that the best measure of these polls is the results including Don't Knows. Of those 21 polls, when Don't Knows are included only five have been over 50% and even then, barely. The others, while showing small leads over NO, are hardly conclusive.

#5 Disregard polling that does not suit the agenda

Since the referendum there have been approximately 150 polls. Until mid 2020, almost everyone of these had a majority for NO. But, during that time, did we see constant headlines saying, 'independence is dead!'? Of course we didn't. So why are we now, with the numbers being barely different, being subjected to endless articles about the demise of the UK?

Just two weeks ago, the Sunday Times did exactly that, spashing 'The Union is in Crisis' headlines across its front page, even though just 49% were in favour of 'independence' and that it was the lowest number in a downward trend.

While this might sell newspapers, it's part of the ongoing appeasement of Scottish Nationalism by our media. Newspapers that woudn't give the time of day to English Nationalists will gladly promote Scottish Nationalist polls.

#6 Claim momentum where there is none

20 polls in a row! 21 polls in a row! Of course, this is simply false.

Not that we expect truth from The National, but the poll above actually showed a decline of four percentage points.

But the wider conculsion is that, six years on and the needle has barely moved from the 2014 result. As results shift, we can see that the 58% result was an outlier.

Another recent poll noted that just 37% of respondents want a Separation referendum in the next two years. There is no momentum.

Scottish Nationalsim is a toxic ideology used by weak and incompetent politicians who promise future hope, while betting that the public will overlook their failngs in reality. We see this every day as people continue to say that they will vote for the SNP -- as a vehicle for 'independence' -- despite 14 YEARS of failure, no path to a second referendum, and mounting evidence of corruption from the top of the party down.

So what better way to sell that hope than manipulate public opinion, through polls and a compliant media, so that it appears that the end result is inevitable. If it's inevitable then why not join the crowd? But 50%, plus or minus a few points, using biased and leading questions, isn't inevitable. It's a DEAD END.

It's also no surprise that many of these polls appear shortly after some bad news for Nicola Sturgeon. The beleagured First Minister needs any squirrel she can find to divert attention from her government and personal failures.

The 'independence' project is now so closely tied with Sturgeon that it lives or dies with her. She was able to use the COVID crisis to her benefit, but as the virus recedes and her corruption and incompetence are further exposed, she will, like all politicians, return to earth, as will the poll results.

Maybe then we can get back to politics that doesn't need biased polls to make their case.

Mark Devlin is the publisher of The Majority. Follow him on Twitter @themajorityscot