Stop lying: Demographics isn’t Destiny

John Swinney, the current SNP leader, and his predecessor, Nicola Sturgeon, have recently resorted to a familiar tactic: invoking youth demographics to justify the party’s continued push for Scottish independence. Both have attempted to frame support among 16- to 24-year-olds as proof of an inevitable shift toward separation from the United Kingdom.

In a recent speech at the SNP’s conference, Swinney cited a poll commissioned by The National—the nationalists’ propaganda paper —which claimed 63% of 16- to 24-year-olds backed independence. However, he went further, misleading MSPs at Holyrood by implying this figure represented overall support for independence across all age groups. In truth, the majority exists only within that youngest demographic. Sturgeon made similar claims in a television interview, again focusing narrowly on youth opinion.

This framing is misleading. A closer look at the empirical data over the past decade suggests that the demographic case for separation is far less convincing than the SNP asserts.

A Decade of Stagnation

Following the 2014 referendum, polling by YouGov provided detailed insight into how various age groups voted. Contrary to nationalist claims, the data showed a nuanced picture:

Among 16- to 24-year-olds, there was a slight majority against independence. Support for the UK was just under 50%, with pro-independence sentiment trailing by a few percentage points.
The 25–39 age group showed the highest level of support for independence, though only by a narrow margin.
In the 40–59 and 60–64 brackets, slim majorities favoured remaining in the Union.
Among those aged 65 and over, a decisive 65% supported the Union.

These figures undermined the suggestion that youth support represented an overwhelming or inevitable tide in favour of separation. Indeed, the youngest cohort—those whom the SNP most frequently cite—were, at the time, marginally more pro-UK than not.

Fast-forward a decade to 2024, and the numbers remain strikingly similar. A fresh YouGov poll indicates that the overall balance of opinion has barely shifted since 2014. The survey finds that:

56% of Scots would now vote No in another referendum, with 44% backing Yes—virtually unchanged from the 2014 result.
The pro-UK side has maintained its lead in the majority of polls conducted over the past ten years. The Yes side briefly edged ahead only on a handful of occasions.
Support for separation has peaked at 53% just twice—once in August 2020 and again in December 2022—and dipped as low as 43% on three separate occasions between 2017 and 2018.

Crucially, voter retention also favours the UK. Only 70% of those who backed Yes in 2014 still support separation today, with 18% having changed their minds. By contrast, 79% of No voters remain committed to the Union, and only 11% have switched sides.

This trend reinforces an uncomfortable truth for the SNP: support for independence has proven volatile, while backing for the Union has remained comparatively stable. The SNP’s repeated invocation of youthful enthusiasm masks a broader demographic reality—the supposed inevitability of independence remains just that: supposed.

The Art of Manipulation

Faced with a lack of clear momentum, nationalist leaders have turned to well-honed techniques of political manipulation to create the illusion of inevitability. Chief among these is poll cherry-picking. The SNP frequently highlights only those surveys favourable to their cause—often omitting sample size, methodology, or margin of error—and ignores the broader trend of consistently Unionist majorities over the past decade.

Another common tactic is the strategic conflation of demographics and destiny. By isolating age brackets where independence appears more popular (such as among 16- to 24-year-olds), nationalists suggest that older, more pro-UK voters will simply “age out” of the electorate, allowing Scotland to drift naturally toward separation. This overlooks two key realities: first, many young Scots become more moderate with age, and second, support for breaking up the UK among youth is neither overwhelming nor stable. The 2014 referendum showed a plurality of young voters chose to remain in the Union.

The SNP also engages in emotive framing, painting independence as a moral imperative rather than a policy choice. By characterising critics as anti-Scottish or unpatriotic, they shut down debate and polarise discourse—substituting sentiment for substance. In speeches and party literature, the language of oppression, “colonial rule,” and “taking back control” is frequently deployed, despite the devolution settlement granting Scotland significant autonomy unmatched in most federal systems.

More subtly, there is the tactic of false precision—presenting a single data point (such as a favourable 63% figure among 16- to 24-year-olds) as if it represents a robust, cross-sectional national trend. In fact, polling across other age groups tells a very different story, one that complicates the nationalist narrative considerably.

Finally, nationalists often present volatility as momentum. Temporary spikes in support—frequently triggered by external events such as Brexit or scandals at Westminster—are touted as proof of an irreversible trend. Yet when support ebbs, as it invariably does, the movement quickly pivots back to vague notions of inevitability and destiny.

These techniques are not merely rhetorical flourishes—they represent a strategic attempt to manufacture consensus in the absence of one. But the facts remain stubborn. Scotland is not drifting inevitably toward independence. If anything, the mood is stalled.

The Numbers Don’t Lie

Despite relentless rhetoric from nationalist leaders and sympathetic coverage in their in-house propaganda paper, The National, the empirical data offers no grounds for triumphalism. The pro-UK position has not only held steady but in some respects has strengthened, as key segments of the electorate have drifted away from the separatist cause.

The data suggests that Scottish independence is not the foregone conclusion the SNP would like to portray. It remains, a decade on from the referendum, a deeply divisive issue with little substantive change in public opinion. Far from being an unstoppable demographic force, support for separation appears stuck in neutral—animated by political theatre, but unconfirmed by the numbers.

Written by Stephen Bailey. Stephen is a commentator on UK constitutional issues.